Tuesday, January 01, 2013

America in 2012, as Told in Charts - NYTimes.com

One of my resolutions for 2013: to waste less time tracking low signal-to-noise information sources...

“Nate Silver was not the only statistically based political prognosticator to cover himself with glory during the recent presidential election. The online betting service Intrade did nearly as well. Throughout the ups and downs of a hard-fought campaign season, it remained solidly confident that President Obama would be re-elected. (The October surge in the probability of an Obama victory probably resulted from Mitt Romney’s notorious “47 percent” remark; the subsequent decline for Mr. Obama followed his poor performance in the first debate.) Intrade also predicted correctly the winner of 49 states and 31 of 33 Senate races.”

America in 2012, as Told in Charts - NYTimes.com

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