Interesting analysis, and some classic Larry Ellison quotes (see the link below), but there’s a rather obvious complication with the “lovefest” scenario: IBM’s software group, which IBM is not about to write off in order to partner more closely, as a professional services provider, with Oracle. On the other hand, I’d be willing to bet that, on Lintel and Wintel (i.e., outside IBM’s mainframe and other legacy platforms), IBM Services is already doing more business on both Oracle Database and Microsoft SQL Server than it is on DB2.
Why the Oracle-IBM relative lovefest? HP could be vulnerable and both IBM and Oracle smell blood. Hurd leaves HP, goes to Oracle and then confesses how he was always jealous of Ellison’s crew and their execution. HP, with its scale and services, is the biggest threat to IBM here and now. Oracle is probably the biggest threat later, but not today. Why not co-operate and split the spoils? Both Ellison and Palmisano see HP as a wounded duck that’s overpaying for acquisitions like 3Par and searching for a leader. The enemy of your enemy is your friend and Oracle and IBM both want to kick HP around. What’s truly comical is that HP wasn’t even mentioned on Oracle’s conference call Thursday, but if you read between the lines the entire call was about HP (with the prerequisite jabs at SAP and Teradata excluded of course).