Monday, October 06, 2003

WSJ.com - With Software Jobs Migrating to India, Think Long Term

WSJ.com - With Software Jobs Migrating to India, Think Long Term: "In 1992, computer guru Ed Yourdon warned that low-cost Indian workers were poised to steal U.S. high-tech jobs -- a decade before the mainstream media started reporting that fear.
'International competition will put American [computer] programmers out of work, just as Japanese competition put American automobile workers out of work in the 1970s,' he warned in his book, 'Decline & Fall of the American Programmer.' He included a sketch of the extinct dodo bird, labeled 'the American programmer, 1999.'
Exactly the opposite happened. With the advent of the Internet, and the soaring popularity of home computers, the number of U.S. programmers and other information-technology workers jumped 40% from 1992 to 1996. So Mr. Yourdon wrote a mea culpa.
In 'Rise & Resurrection of the American Programmer,' he said in 1996 that the U.S. culture of innovation promised a bright future for U.S. info-tech workers. Wrong again. Jobs increased for four years, but then slumped as the tech bubble burst. 'Global ramifications are very hard to predict,' he says now."

I think Yourdon is often right but ~10 years early...
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