Check the full post and this article for some analysis of reasons why RIM might be acquired. I agree with the points below, however, on Microsoft as a potential acquirer; the opportunity costs to Microsoft’s mobile ambitions would likely be ~infinity
The reasons not to do the deal, meanwhile:
- The biggest reason is that it might alienate Microsoft's biggest phone partner, Nokia. Right now, Nokia is sure that it's Microsoft number-one phone partner. If Microsoft buys RIM, that would no longer be true.
- RIM's founders would probably resist and it might turn into a MicroHoo-style fiasco.
- Microsoft is a software company, not a hardware company. It needs to focus on what it's good at.