Predicting Too Early Is as Bad as Not Predicting at All | LinkedIn

Don Norman revisits his 1998 predictions and closes with a few new predictions

"In 1998 I published a book The Invisible Computer (subtitled “Why good products can fail, the personal computer is so complex, and information appliances are the solution”). I predicted that computers would disappear, to be replaced by smaller, more specialized information appliances. Computers, I said, would become invisible, embedded in everything (an idea very closely related to the ubiquitous computer concept, differing only in details). Today, 16 years later, some of these predictions are coming true.

Did the computer disappear? For many of us, no, but for many people, yes: they use smartphones and tablets in place of large screen monitors with keyboards and mouse (or touch pad). And even for those of us who still use computers, we supplement that usage with the smaller, more portable and more convenient smart phones, tablets, and lightweight laptops. Actually, I said professionals who need specialized writing, drawing, editing, or mathematical tools will still use computers, but even they will not when at home. Was I right? It is still too early to say: 16 years isn’t long enough to tell."

Predicting Too Early Is as Bad as Not Predicting at All | LinkedIn