An excerpt from a timely Dave Kellogg post:
Marko ends his post on an hopeful note for Documentum's future. I'm slightly less optimistic than he is because of one word: SharePoint. Acutally, two words: SharePoint and Alfresco.
I think a likely future for the ECM category is SharePoint attacking from the left with Microsoft's standard iterative-improvement approach and Alfresco attacking from the right as the alternative to SharePoint. First-generation ECM vendors end up as the IBM mainframes in that scenario (i.e., they're expensive and everybody has one, but they aren't deploying new apps on them). I've blogged before on the similarities between ECM and BI, and I believe that while BI jelled as an integrated category that ECM never did.