Saturday, October 13, 2007

Platformonomics - Oracle BEArs Down

Charles Fitzgerald shares his perspectives on ORCL/BEAS; see his full post for some interesting (Microsoft-filtered) dimensions.

With a $6.66 billion (numerologists take note) unsolicited, all-cash bid for BEA Systems, Oracle further cements their role as the new Computer Associates, i.e. the ecosystem scavenger. BEA seems to have accepted they're in the endgame, quibbling only about valuation and not their independence.

Go read his post and then come back here; my $.02 on Charles' points:

1. I don't think cold Fusion is a foregone conclusion

2. I suspect Oracle is not unlike Microsoft these days, in terms of decoupling its long-term strategy from short-term Wall Street appeasement

3. I agree it's unlikely HP, IBM, or SAP will pony up ~$8B to trump Oracle's deal

4. BEA has an expensive but very valuable installed base/franchise, and some "legacy" systems, such as Tuxedo (and TopEnd) happen to run a lot of the world's infrastructure...

5. On the delayed BEAS filings: Oracle has now put a spotlight on that dimension, and it's possible Oracle's $17/share bid may ultimately seem generous, if it turns out BEAS has pulled a mini-Enron...

Platformonomics - Oracle BEArs Down

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