Sunday, September 28, 2008

Prototype - We’ll Fill This Space, but First a Nap - NYTimes.com

See the full article for some examples of companies seeking to capitalize on this theme

Most people, Dr. Ellenbogen says, think of the sleeping brain as similar to a computer that has “gone to sleep” — it does nothing productive. Wrong. Sleep enhances performance, learning and memory. Most unappreciated of all, sleep improves creative ability to generate aha! moments and to uncover novel connections among seemingly unrelated ideas.

Steven P. Jobs, the chief executive of Apple, once defined creativity as “just connecting things.” Sleep assists the brain in flagging unrelated ideas and memories, forging connections among them that increase the odds that a creative idea or insight will surface.

Prototype - We’ll Fill This Space, but First a Nap - NYTimes.com

Adobe hole enables free movie downloads - CNET News

Hmm...

A security hole in Adobe Systems software, used to distribute movies and TV shows over the Internet, is giving users free access to record and copy from Amazon.com's video streaming service.

The problem exposes online video content to the rampant piracy that plagued the music industry during the Napster era and is undermining efforts by retailers, movie studios and television networks to cash in on a huge Web audience.

"It's a fundamental flaw in the Adobe design. This was designed stupidly," said Bruce Schneier, a security expert who is also the chief security technology officer at British Telecom.

Adobe hole enables free movie downloads - CNET News

Friday, September 26, 2008

Oracle CEO Ellison: "We Won't be Opening Cloud Centers" - WSJ.com

Some classic Larry Ellison reality checks from Oracle OpenWorld...  Excepts from a WSJ summary:

Speaking to analysts at a meeting in San Francisco, Ellison said that cloud computing, alongside industry trends including software as service and open source computing, were overhyped, ill-defined buzzwords, embraced by companies largely to market products and compared them to fashion trends in the women's clothing industry.

In most cases, he said, these services aren't making money for their providers.

"You won't see us opening any cloud centers, because the economics don't work," he said. "What the hell is cloud computing?"

[...]

"Amazon has huge compute power and excess capacity. So it makes sense for them. But for us to go out and build a data center specifically to do this - it doesn't compute.

"Who makes money in cloud computing?"

Ellison also took aim at on-demand software, or software as a service, saying that like cloud-computing, many companies offering these services were struggling to drive profitability.

"Back to the other great fashion - software as a service. Salesforce.com, which I was a founding investor in, barely makes any money at all. And they're a giant of the industry."

Tangent on Salesforce.com: interesting that Marc Benioff was dumping 10,000 shares a day through mid-August (down from 20,000 shares/day last year); check this summary.  Quite a contrast with Larry Ellison, who has held most of his Oracle stock since founding the company more than 30 years ago.

Article - WSJ.com

Inside Chrome: The Secret Project to Crush IE and Remake the Web

An extensive Wired Magazine article by Steven Levy about Google Chrome -- useful background info; check out the full article 

Why is Google building a browser? A better question is, why did it take so long for Google to build a browser? After all, as Pichai says, "our entire business is people using a browser to access us and the Web."

A stark chart from the article:

Inside Chrome: The Secret Project to Crush IE and Remake the Web

Is Chrome the first epic fail at Google? | Computerworld Blogs

The full article continues with some useful projections

In a Computerworld report that summarizes recent Net Applications data, interest in Google Chrome has now died down to a standstill. Most of the people still downloading it are either night owls or from countries outside of the US, such as China, because the only activity is at night. As I mentioned in an earlier post, Chrome searches have now fallen in line with Firefox. This, after a week or hype and unforeseen interest made it seem like Google was going to a) take over the browser market b) usher in the end the OS as we know it and c) probably make Google really rich.

Is Chrome the first epic fail at Google? | Computerworld Blogs

From the Desk of David Pogue - The Mother of All Search Functions - NYTimes.com

A timely reality check -- see the full column for details

Today's e-column is nothing but a computer tip, but it's a biggie. It seems obvious in retrospect, but I've got to tell you, it's totally rocked my world:

Use Google search for everything.

From the Desk of David Pogue - The Mother of All Search Functions - NYTimes.com

Official Google Blog: The next Internet

An excerpt from Vint Cerf's view:

In the next decade, around 70% of the human population will have fixed or mobile access to the Internet at increasingly high speeds, up to gigabits per second. We can reliably expect that mobile devices will become a major component of the Internet, as will appliances and sensors of all kinds. Many of the things on the Internet, whether mobile or fixed, will know where they are, both geographically and logically. As you enter a hotel room, your mobile will be told its precise location including room number. When you turn your laptop on, it will learn this information as well--either from the mobile or from the room itself. It will be normal for devices, when activated, to discover what other devices are in the neighborhood, so your mobile will discover that it has a high resolution display available in what was once called a television set. If you wish, your mobile will remember where you have been and will keep track of RFID-labeled objects such as your briefcase, car keys and glasses. "Where are my glasses?" you will ask. "You were last within RFID reach of them while in the living room," your mobile or laptop will say.

Official Google Blog: The next Internet

Platformonomics - MySQL or My Bad?

Charles Fitzgerald's Sun snapshot:

The next question is what is the end game for Sun?  Do they circle the drain like Silicon Graphics (yes, they are still in business) or do they get consumed by the likes of Fujitsu or perhaps a rising dynamo from the developing world?  Leave your predictions as comments and maybe we'll start a pool.

My $.02: HP and Oracle should acquire and dismantle Sun, with HP taking the hardware and services and Oracle taking Java and the rest of Sun's software business.

Platformonomics - MySQL or My Bad?

If They Debate, Here’s Where to Tweet All About It - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com

Sign of the times...

If Senators John McCain and Barack Obama actually do debate Friday night, you will be able to watch what thousands of viewers think of their verbal sparring almost as they talk. Twitter, the service that lets techno-hipsters broadcast their thoughts in 140-character bursts, is setting up a special politics page to make it easy to tune into the chatter.

If They Debate, Here’s Where to Tweet All About It - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Oracle Embraces a New Hardware Partner - Bits Blog - NYTimes.com

The HP Oracle hardware partnership is definitely not happy news for Sun, and Sun's ~$1B decision to acquire MySQL AB is perhaps not looking so brilliant at this point. 

The major difference with this partnership involves Oracle’s decision to champion H.P. over its other close hardware partners like Sun and Dell. In the past, Oracle may very well have struck a deal like this with Sun, as Mr. Ellison has long counted Sun’s chairman, Scott McNealy, as both a personal friend and strong business ally.

Times have changed, however with HP’s server business growing while Sun’s declines. In addition, Sun acquired MySQL, a maker of open source database software that competes with Oracle.

For the Oracle/Dell partnership, I suspect it's only a matter of time -- as in the term of the HP exclusive in this context -- before Dell gets into the Oracle Exadata and Database Machine business.  Given that Oracle has ~50% of the global DBMS market at this point, it'll be fascinating to see if IBM also jumps in, with Oracle-specific storage and server hardware.

Oracle Embraces a New Hardware Partner - Bits Blog - NYTimes.com

Oracle puts its 11g database in Amazon's cloud | ITworld

Another interesting dynamic from OpenWorld this week:

Oracle is now offering its 11g database, Fusion Middleware and Enterprise Manager products through Amazon Web Services' Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2), the vendor announced Monday at the start of its OpenWorld conference in San Francisco.

The vendor will also let customers use existing software licenses on EC2 at no additional cost.

To help customers get up and running on EC2, Oracle has developed a set of Amazon Machine Images (AMIs). These allow users to spool up new virtual machines already provisioned with 11g, Fusion Middleware and Oracle Enterprise Linux within a few minutes, the company said.

Oracle also announced Secure Backup Cloud Module, a software package based on Oracle Secure Backup that allows customers to backup databases to Amazon Simple Storage Service. Backups can be encrypted and the module is integrated with Oracle Recovery Manager and Enterprise Manager.

As with HP, Oracle has a multifaceted and bidirectional customer/supplier relationship with Amazon.com.

Oracle puts its 11g database in Amazon's cloud | ITworld

Technology Review: Sun Microsystems CEO gets $11M 2008 pay package

Insult added to injury, for JAVA shareholders

Sun Microsystems Inc. Chief Executive Jonathan Schwartz received an $11.1 million pay package in the server and software maker's most recent fiscal year.
The amount represents a 44 percent bump over the previous year's $7.7 million in compensation, a reward for Sun's recent profitability streak, but was far short of what Schwartz could have garnered.
A serious downturn in the second half of the 2008 fiscal year, due to tougher competition from Hewlett-Packard Co. and IBM Corp. and Santa Clara-based Sun's heavy reliance on U.S. businesses and financial services firms, cut deeply into Sun's results and has held down its shares.

Here's a chart of Sun's stock price over the last year, from Yahoo! Finance:

image

Technology Review: Sun Microsystems CEO gets $11M 2008 pay package

Yahoo Overhauls System for Selling Display Ads - NYTimes.com

Evidently Yahoo! isn't ready to completely capitulate to Google...

The new platform, called APT, will allow both publishers and advertisers to manage display advertising across the Web sites of several hundred newspapers across the country, along with Yahoo sites and large sites like eBay and WebMD.

At an event at Advertising Week in New York, executives said that the 800 or so members of Yahoo’s newspaper consortium would be using the system, formerly known as AMP, by the end of the year.

Yahoo Overhauls System for Selling Display Ads - NYTimes.com

An Oracle OpenWorld reality check: one size fits *plenty*

I have often been perplexed, over the last ~25 years, by assorted waves of technologies and/or market positioning meant to suggest that the extended relational database management system market was somehow past its prime.  I covered this general topic in a Burton Group Data Management Strategies blog post a few months ago, before I parted ways with Burton Group; skim that post for more details on the broader DBMS market reality check dimensions.

While many people still believe that DBMSs are only useful for basic text and number data/application domains, and that open source DBMSs such as MySQL are "good enough" for a wide range of database management needs, in reality the leading commercial DBMSs -- which for Linux and Windows servers means mostly Oracle Database and Microsoft SQL Server, these days (with IBM DB2 in 3rd place) -- are expanding to address "the other 80%" of information that hasn't traditionally been managed in DBMSs, ranging from basic file management to elaborate XML documents and advanced, composite data types (e.g., for spatial application domains).

And while some people assert that extended relational DBMSs are needlessly complex "bloatware", I think you'll find the people making that type of assertion are in many cases trying to sell you some type of self-proclaimed "next generation" specialized database system, and not being entirely objective about the DBMS incumbents.

It's critically important to understand that the advances embodied in Oracle's Exadata and Database Machine announcements today apply to *all* information management domains, not just high-end data warehousing, and that overall information management market momentum is shifting more toward extended relational DBMSs than into any sort of specialized alternative model. 

Especially with today's privacy and security realities, and with advances such as no-compromises DBMS-based XML content management and XQuery, in many ways the database management market is just getting started, and the implications, in terms of future business opportunities for DBMS-centric platform vendors such as Microsoft and Oracle, are pretty amazing...

Oracle Exadata and Oracle Database Machine: Brute-Force Acceleration

You can read about the Exadata and Database Machine news in several places, including:

The immediate market buzz will almost certainly be focused on the roles of Exadata and the Database Machine for high-end data warehouse scenarios, and the technologies do indeed have rather stark implications for incumbent and aspiring data warehouse specialists such as Teradata and Netezza, along with the storage vendors that have been most successful in data warehouse domains, such as EMC. Larry Ellison greatly enjoyed sharing price/performance data during his keynote session today, for example, data that will probably result in some major back-to-the-drawing-board initiatives throughout the data warehousing market landscape.

The stakes are actually much broader than the data warehousing market, however, as Oracle's moves today represent a couple interesting attempts to exploit brute-force acceleration opportunities.

First, by enhancing and modularizing Oracle Database (in 11g 11.1.0.7) so that some aspects of query processing can be handled in the storage tier rather than the database tier, Oracle has fundamentally changed data management price/performance equations. The Exadata storage model returns query results rather than data blocks, leveraging multicore Intel processors to deliver very smart storage subsystems. By combining the Exadata Storage model with Oracle Database clusters and InfiniBand networking in the HP Oracle Database Machine, Oracle is exploiting multi-level grid technology to radically accelerate DBMS performance, producing very disruptive price/performance attributes.

Oracle's partnership with HP is another example of brute-force acceleration. From a software point of view, there actually isn't a lot of Oracle news today; the HP Oracle Database Machine is, in most respects, simply a very high-end packaging of capabilities that were already possible with Oracle's software (the storage tier-level query processing is new, however). Oracle RAC clusters and Oracle ASM (for automatic storage management) are mature, powerful, and widely-deployed technologies, for example, but the mainstream market may not have fully appreciated their implications until Oracle and HP partnered to create the HP Oracle Database Machine. This means, among other things, that existing Oracle Database applications can move to the new model with no modifications.

Perhaps EMC and other vendors participating in the until-today business-as-usual data warehousing market would have eventually gotten around to delivering a similar model, but perhaps not -- i.e., it was probably up to Oracle to push for the architectural and business model acceleration, by partnering with HP over the last three years to create the products introduced today.

So, is Oracle truly a hardware vendor now? Not really; HP has an exclusive partnership with Oracle (the duration of the exclusivity period wasn't announced today), and, while Oracle's sales force is responsible for selling the joint HP Oracle storage and database machine products, HP provides the boxes and the hardware support.

I think it's safe to assume other traditional Oracle hardware partners will eventually also participate in the Exadata and Database Machine markets, but the timing is unclear. One thing that is clear, in any case: Oracle, with its Exadata and Database Machine offerings, just significantly accelerated its overall strategic agenda, and the moves will have ramifications that go far beyond the high-end data warehousing market.

Oracle OpenWorld observations: Oracle and Microsoft have *a lot* in common

For some context-setting, before getting into the implications of Oracle's somewhat surprising entry into the hardware business today, it's useful to consider some ways in which Microsoft and Oracle have a lot in common.

1. Both companies appear to be relatively staid, when compared with edgier companies such as Apple and Google. Indeed, in many respects, in terms of the current market conventional wisdom, it often seems that Apple and Google can do nothing wrong, while Microsoft and Oracle can do few things right. Sure, Microsoft and Oracle are the largest pure-play independent software vendors in the world, and they're astounding profitable, but let's face it: they are usually portrayed as pretty boring big companies, in the mainstream press, and the press also seems to prefer to accentuate the negative where both vendors are concerned, e.g., problematic patches, threats from open source alternatives, senior executive departures, etc.

2. Microsoft and Oracle are both long-term-focused, with compelling -- and in many ways very similar -- visions about how information management can be productively transformed through the use of commodity-scale, end-to-end product portfolios, ranging from server operating systems to user environments for mobile devices. While again perhaps not as exhilarating or headline-worthy as the next cool web service from Google or iPhone from Apple, software from Microsoft and Oracle is driving a huge (and growing) percentage of global information systems today.

3. Microsoft and Oracle are at the center of expansive (and in many ways overlapping) hardware, software, and service provider ecosystems. While the press and blogosphere may sometimes leave people with the impression that traditional software vendors are obsolete, in favor of open source and smaller/focused alternatives (and now cloud/software-as-a-service stuff, of course), in reality Microsoft and Oracle both continue to be very strong market leaders, in terms of price/performance cost-effectiveness as well as feature/function innovation, especially when the pools of price-competitive developers and system administrators trained in their products are factored into the economic equations.

4. Microsoft and Oracle tend to formulate and stick to long-term plans. Microsoft is fundamentally a platform and tools vendor, with .NET at the center of its strategy, and Oracle -- as its name has always suggested -- is fundamentally about information management. Both have placed strategic bets on scale-out architectures for infrastructure, database management, application servers, and middleware. Indeed, with the exception of some important differences, such as the fact that the Microsoft Windows Server System is available exclusively on Windows Server, and Microsoft is focused on .NET, while Oracle supports multiple server operating systems and prefers the virtual machine architecture and application framework of the Java community to .NET, their architectures have a great deal in common. They also play well together, despite very aggressive marketing and sales organizations, because almost all large organizations use a mix of Microsoft and Oracle products (i.e., because their joint customers demand it).

5. Many people seriously underestimate the scope and momentum of the businesses of Microsoft and Oracle, in part because it sometimes takes several years and product releases before the vendors bring their visions to fruition. Oracle is an operating system vendor, for example, with its Enterprise Linux product, but you don't often read about that in the industry press. And Microsoft is actually a very strong global competitor in domains such as mobile device operating systems and game consoles, but the press usually presents Microsoft as a loser if it's not in first or second place in any market in which it seeks to compete. Both vendors keep pounding away at bringing their long-term visions to reality, in any case, and often, as two of the most resourceful players, also avail themselves of opportunities to advance their agendas through acquisitions.

Overall, cool/hip or not, Microsoft and Oracle are both now exceptionally well-positioned to benefit from the disruptive changes percolating through the information technology landscape, including massively multicore computing clusters, radical changes in storage capacity and price/performance, and incredibly advanced networking technologies. Oracle made a very interesting leapfrog move today, with its Exadata storage server and Oracle Database Machine, but it's now playing a game in which, in many respects, it has only one kindred spirit competitor -- Microsoft -- and we can assume it won't be long before Microsoft (along with its partner ecosystem) unveils its response to today's Oracle news.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Oracle OpenWorld recap: information overload...

I spent today in an invitation-only industry analyst day at Oracle OpenWorld, after spending the last two days attending OpenWorld sessions and exploring the seemingly infinite exhibit areas.

One of the great things about being a software industry analyst is that you occasionally get invited to events such as OpenWorld, with breakout sessions such as the ones I attended today. The analyst day included several Oracle senior executives presenting business and strategy updates, a customer panel, and lots of opportunities for discussions, Q&A, etc.

The scale of OpenWorld is amazing -- it's actually several conferences in one, due to Oracle's many acquisitions over the last few years. While there's definitely an overall database management system (DBMS) theme, given Oracle's database roots and business model, OpenWorld is also the customer/developer event for customers of acquired companies such as BEA, JD Edwards, PeopleSoft, and Siebel.

I'm suffering from a serious case of information overload at the moment, but I'll try to capture, in the next few posts, some of the reasons why I think today, with some surprising news from Oracle, is going to be considered a major milestone in the database -- and overall enterprise software -- business.

Oracle Enters Computer-Hardware Business - WSJ.com

Pretty bold -- I'm watching the Larry Ellison keynote at Oracle OpenWorld at the moment; more later...

Oracle Corp., one of the best-known names in computer software, is entering the hardware business.

The Redwood Shores, Calif., company Wednesday disclosed plans to sell a computer bundled with Oracle software, a combination designed to help businesses sort through data faster. The system, which Oracle describes as an appliance, will be manufactured for the company by Hewlett-Packard Co. and come with Oracle's database software already installed. Oracle will sell the system and provide support for it, said Charles Phillips, Oracle's co-president.

Oracle Enters Computer-Hardware Business - WSJ.com

Is Google Cell Phone a Good Deal for Consumers? | Newsweek Daniel Lyons | Techtonic Shifts | Newsweek.com

A timely reality check from the former FSJ; read the full article 

Unless you're hopelessly dedicated to a landline-only existence, you're going to read a fair amount about the G1, a.k.a. the Google Phone. Manufactured by HTC and offered by T-Mobile, the iPhone-like device runs on Google's Android operating system and goes on sale Oct. 22. But the biggest thing to bear in mind is that this phone was not primarily designed to solve a problem that you, the consumer, are having. Rather it was designed to solve a problem that Google has—namely, the need to keep feeding more and more people into the maw of Google's online advertising machine.

Is Google Cell Phone a Good Deal for Consumers? | Newsweek Daniel Lyons | Techtonic Shifts | Newsweek.com

Google Introduces an iPhone Rival Open to Whims - NYTimes.com

A useful NYT summary

Analysts said that the G1 did not represent the kind of revolutionary change in design and function that Apple introduced last year with the iPhone. But the G1 is likely to further accelerate two trends that will have a lasting impact on the wireless industry: the growing use of the Internet on the go, and the ability of consumers to customize their phones with their favorite functions.

Later in the article

Android is unlikely to take the smartphone market by storm overnight. Despite its success, the iPhone accounted for just 2.8 percent of smartphones sold worldwide in the second quarter, according to Gartner, a market analysis firm. Windows Mobile, a seven-year-old Microsoft operating system that runs on phones sold by more than 160 carriers, has just 12 percent of the market.

Google Introduces an iPhone Rival Open to Whims - NYTimes.com