The Seattle Times: Microsoft: Technology analyst expects further delays for Windows Vista

The Seattle Times: Microsoft: Technology analyst expects further delays for Windows Vista: "Gartner's reasoning for the estimate, which it expressed with 80 percent probability, is based on the expected ship date of the second test version of Vista, known as Beta 2. With past operating systems that compare to Vista in complexity, it took Microsoft 16 months to go from Beta 2 to manufacturing."

Running my Gartner-speak emulator, I think there's a .94 probability that Gartner failed to account for some significant changes in the software development process since Windows XP was in beta during 2001 (e.g., the traditional beta cycle for software initiatives of all sizes is history...), and a .83 probability this report was designed to maximize headline fodder rather than Gartner client information value-add. It appears to have been successful on the latter, but I also suspect there's a .78 probability that at least 50% of Gartner's customers will be annoyed if they update their Vista deployment plans based on Gartner's projection only to see Vista released to enterprises during late 2006 as Microsoft plans.